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5.4·6 min read

Projecting Working Capital

Forecast NWC with days-ratios (DSO, DIH, DPO) or a quick % of sales. The ratios reveal how efficiently a company runs.

By the end you can
  • Use DSO, DIH, and DPO to project working capital
  • Choose between the detailed and quick-and-dirty methods

To project you forecast its components. The professional way uses days ratios that translate each balance into 'how many days of sales/COGS does this represent?' - which makes the assumptions intuitive and comparable across companies.

RatioFormulaReads as
- A/R / Sales × 365Days to collect from customers (lower = faster cash)
- Inventory / COGS × 365Days to sell inventory (lower = leaner)
- A/P / COGS × 365Days to pay suppliers (higher = better terms)

Once you assume a , , and for each forecast year (anchored on history and outlook), you back out the projected A/R, inventory, and A/P - and from those, and its change.

Detailed (balance-sheet) method
  • Project each component via days ratios
  • Lets you toggle individual drivers
  • Preferred when you have the data
  • Essential when one item dominates (e.g. slow-paying government A/R)
Quick-and-dirty method
  • Project total as a % of sales
  • Compute the year-over-year change
  • Used when detailed data is missing
  • Fast, but hides the individual levers
What good and bad look like

Falling and with stable or rising is a company getting more efficient - collecting faster, holding less inventory, paying suppliers later. That's a working-capital tailwind to .

Check yourself

Annual sales are $3,650mm and A/R is $400mm. What is DSO?